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Iranian crisis and Israel's influence by Emma

Threat of secret or later development Leaving Israel out of the negotiations Israel not willing to compromise Interest in stabilizing the region Interests in Iranian economy and oil Support from elsewhere??? Pressure from conservative Jews Pressure mainly from US republicans Allowing peaceful use of nuclear energy Lifting sanctions Support for moderate Iranian government International agreement with Iran Sanctions Failure of sanctions and control Israel's dominance Support for fundamentalists Terrorist attacks Nuclear weapons in Iran Threat from fundamentalists Peace in the middle east International control Economic relations with Iran
Motivated by the growing critique from the US republicans I have started a model on the deal with Iran. Am I missing something? If you want I might share a collaborative link on the pinboard.

Paris: Governments acting on climate change by Kai Neumann

Lowering emissions Protection of sinks (forests etc.) CO2 taxation Measures against climate change schools, communities etc. should want to become heroes media has to ask for heroes The politicians need to become heroes information by NGOs, media, schools etc. Pressure towards measures from voters International fonds Long term savings from less fossile fuels Agitation against initiatives Increase of costs Pressure against measures from voters United international initiatives Fear of competitive disadvantages Less income Pressure from lobbyists Buying/not selling forests etc. Limitation of emissions Carbon emissions trading Measurement of per capita improvement
A qualitative model that asks what it takes to take political action. Feel free to add to it.

A solution for Ghana's and probably other country's future by Kai Neumann

tourism processing of local crops jobs labor intensive farming other factors like security and health meaningful life food security Happy people of Ghana export of food and non-food strong economy solar energy intact forests paying for plastic collection establishing recycling using melted plastic instead of wood reusable packaging or bioplastics developing a railway system polluted air transportation from remote areas plastic garbage everywhere Power to Liquid/Gas facilities direct cash transfer instead of other aid
Just returned from a science/business trip from Ghana - this time also visiting some 'hinterland' as well as tourist attractions. Great people (I mean that) and potentially a great country as well. They have the beaches, the forests even near the beaches, they speak English, they have great local food, and at least in the south it was despite dry season extremely green.  But for the first time in my life I wasn't willing to jump into the ocean - too much garbage in it. I wasn't jogging - too much polluti...

PiM: Demo model for modeling supply chains and optimal inventories 2 by Kai Neumann

Material costs Costs of unsatisfied customer Overdue orders Usual duration of process Cost of overdue orders Costs of storage Discount for volumes of 10 Price of product Fulfilled orders Costs of resources Process Material List price of material Resource for process Amount expected to be needed in delivery time Orders to be processed Incoming orders Amount per order Overall benefit Delivery time for orders of material Storage costs Ordering material
This is a small example model that shows how to use normal factors and delays to model delivery times (so you do not always have to use PiM factors); how to identify the optimal quantity of orders and how to identify the optimal number of resources. Do not hesitate to ask for more explanations or some variations of the model :-)

Next crash inevitable? by Kai Neumann

People invest in stocks Debts Low interests Low demand for investments Government spending Stock markets go down Shrinking demand from consumers Crash Government‘s debts Fed and ECB increase interests Rise of prices of luxury goods Heating up of real estate prices People have money People invest into real estate People invest in gold etc. Demographic pressure on social security systems Renewable energy moon shot project Money creation Diesel scandal VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi BREXIT, trade war Trump US and China Tax income Jobs
a qualitative model including the arguments from an article from Handelsblatt (https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/die-naechste-rezession-abschwung-oder-crash-warten-auf-den-grossen-knall/23589494.html?ticket=ST-2259849-76TcgloNt9xQvTFcp2kS-ap6) and some more feel free to edit the model via its collaborative link

Benefits of a carbon tax (CO2 emissions taxation) by Kai Neumann

Products not attractive for export Competition from imported products Costs for population Gadgets Mobility Warm homes Satisfied population Prospering businesses Overall target Lowering other taxes Greenhouse gas emissions Other countries follow CO2 tax on imported products as well Subsidizing renewables Subsidizing insulation Insulation Price of plastic etc. from fossiles Price of energy from fossiles improved technologies/ economies of scale of renewables Increase of renewables Carbon tax Price of energy in our country
Just a small qualitative model examining the benefits from a carbon tax. The weighting and the arguments are rather conservative. Yet, I think it is an extremely powerful way to transition towards more intelligent solutions using simple market forces instead of unpopular regulation.

HIDP - a fictitious example for one's planning for happiness in 2016 (GIEP) by Kai Neumann

Buying new bicycles Bicycle vacation with the family Motivating kids for gardening Watching too much TV Stress in our relation Money New projects at the job A new garden house Reading books Time Soccer and the team Gardening Financial sorrows Personal health Fun with colleagues at the job Nice time with the family Feeling of development Feeling of integration Happiness in 2016 Regular biking with the family Stress
This is just a small model showing an example of a Holistic Integration and Development Plan (HIDP). Based on the biopsychological insight from Know-Why-Thinking (http://www.amazon.com/Know-Why-Systems-Thinking-Modeling/dp/384821430X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=145064...) human action is defined by our evolutionary strive for feelings of integration or for feelings of development. Allegedly, the difference between humans and other animals is that we can consciously reflect on our actions and their meaning. Th...

Quantitatives Demo Modell MC by Kai Neumann

Betrachter von Anzeigen Preis Kosten je Anzeige Einkommen (inkl. Preis) Qualität der Anzeige (stock and se 1) Word of Mouth (Formel aus Literatur) Verbesserung der Anzeigenqualität (relation) Verbreitungsrate Random Investition in Anzeigenqualität (discrete value) dummy Gesamtpotential Kunden Kunden (stock) Verzögerung der Verbreitung Profit (stock) Anzahl der Anzeigen (Input) Kunden durch Anzeigen (multiplicative) Witzigkeit der Anzeige (constant) Anzeigenkosten Effektivität von Anzeigen (relative quantification) Kosten gesamt (additive)
Kleines Demo-Modell aus dem Tutorial (dort auf Englisch, via Menu ... Zeige Hilfe und dann Klick auf den Fragezeichen-Button am unteren Fenster-Rand) und dem gerade aktualisierten Buch: Qualitative und Quantitative Ursache-Wirkungsmodellierung

Tutorial: Quantitative Demo Model (diffusion model, word of mouth WoM marketing) by Kai Neumann

Customers through ads Cumulated profit Price Delay of diffusion Customer Diffusion rate Costs Total potential customers Income Investment into quality of ads Profit Improvement of quality of ads Product reputation, Corporate identity etc. Quality of ads Weeks passed Constant decrease of ads Initial number of ads Effectivity of ads Runs of the medium Number of ads Word of Mouth effect
This is the quantitative model from the tutorial (Menu ... Show Help ... "?" ... Quantitative Model)

Erfolg im Studium by ulrich.sailer@hfwu.de

realistische Studienanforderungen überzeugendes Studienangebot Konsumlust Sammlung berufspraktischer Erfahrungen Gute Berufsaussichten knappe Finanzen Gute Lernbedingungen Spaß/ Wohlfühlen Fachliches Vorwissen Methodenwissen Erfolgsdruck Persönliche Ausgeglichenheit Hobbies Familiäre Verpflichtungen Studienmotivation Nebenjobs Engagement Studierfähigkeit Erfolg im Studium Zeit für das Studium Beratungs-/ Coachingangebote für Studierende
Das kleine, qualitative Modell soll aufzeigen, wie ein erfolgreiches Studium gelingen kann. Einfluss haben hierauf die Hochschule (grüne Faktoren), die Studierenden (orange Faktoren) und teils gibt es auch externe Gründe (blaue Faktoren). Die Erkenntnismatrix führt, trotz der Einfachheit des Modells, zu interessanten Erkenntnissen, die klassische Diskussionen in Hochschulgremien bereichern können. Zu beachten ist dabei der Unterschied zwischen kurzfristigen Optimierungen und einer langfristigen Erfolgsst...