Search for keywords, e.g. 'management complex projects' or 'holiday fun'

Next crash inevitable? by Kai Neumann

People invest in stocks Debts Low interests Low demand for investments Government spending Stock markets go down Shrinking demand from consumers Crash Government‘s debts Fed and ECB increase interests Rise of prices of luxury goods Heating up of real estate prices People have money People invest into real estate People invest in gold etc. Demographic pressure on social security systems Renewable energy moon shot project Money creation Diesel scandal VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi BREXIT, trade war Trump US and China Tax income Jobs
a qualitative model including the arguments from an article from Handelsblatt (https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/die-naechste-rezession-abschwung-oder-crash-warten-auf-den-grossen-knall/23589494.html?ticket=ST-2259849-76TcgloNt9xQvTFcp2kS-ap6) and some more feel free to edit the model via its collaborative link

Benefits of a carbon tax (CO2 emissions taxation) by Kai Neumann

Products not attractive for export Competition from imported products Costs for population Gadgets Mobility Warm homes Satisfied population Prospering businesses Overall target Lowering other taxes Greenhouse gas emissions Other countries follow CO2 tax on imported products as well Subsidizing renewables Subsidizing insulation Insulation Price of plastic etc. from fossiles Price of energy from fossiles improved technologies/ economies of scale of renewables Increase of renewables Carbon tax Price of energy in our country
Just a small qualitative model examining the benefits from a carbon tax. The weighting and the arguments are rather conservative. Yet, I think it is an extremely powerful way to transition towards more intelligent solutions using simple market forces instead of unpopular regulation.

HIDP - a fictitious example for one's planning for happiness in 2016 (GIEP) by Kai Neumann

Buying new bicycles Bicycle vacation with the family Motivating kids for gardening Watching too much TV Stress in our relation Money New projects at the job A new garden house Reading books Time Soccer and the team Gardening Financial sorrows Personal health Fun with colleagues at the job Nice time with the family Feeling of development Feeling of integration Happiness in 2016 Regular biking with the family Stress
This is just a small model showing an example of a Holistic Integration and Development Plan (HIDP). Based on the biopsychological insight from Know-Why-Thinking (http://www.amazon.com/Know-Why-Systems-Thinking-Modeling/dp/384821430X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=145064...) human action is defined by our evolutionary strive for feelings of integration or for feelings of development. Allegedly, the difference between humans and other animals is that we can consciously reflect on our actions and their meaning. Th...

Quantitatives Demo Modell MC by Kai Neumann

Betrachter von Anzeigen Preis Kosten je Anzeige Einkommen (inkl. Preis) Qualität der Anzeige (stock and se 1) Word of Mouth (Formel aus Literatur) Verbesserung der Anzeigenqualität (relation) Verbreitungsrate Random Investition in Anzeigenqualität (discrete value) dummy Gesamtpotential Kunden Kunden (stock) Verzögerung der Verbreitung Profit (stock) Anzahl der Anzeigen (Input) Kunden durch Anzeigen (multiplicative) Witzigkeit der Anzeige (constant) Anzeigenkosten Effektivität von Anzeigen (relative quantification) Kosten gesamt (additive)
Kleines Demo-Modell aus dem Tutorial (dort auf Englisch, via Menu ... Zeige Hilfe und dann Klick auf den Fragezeichen-Button am unteren Fenster-Rand) und dem gerade aktualisierten Buch: Qualitative und Quantitative Ursache-Wirkungsmodellierung

Tutorial: Quantitative Demo Model (diffusion model, word of mouth WoM marketing) by Kai Neumann

Customers through ads Cumulated profit Price Delay of diffusion Customer Diffusion rate Costs Total potential customers Income Investment into quality of ads Profit Improvement of quality of ads Product reputation, Corporate identity etc. Quality of ads Weeks passed Constant decrease of ads Initial number of ads Effectivity of ads Runs of the medium Number of ads Word of Mouth effect
This is the quantitative model from the tutorial (Menu ... Show Help ... "?" ... Quantitative Model)

Climate change: taking personal action by Kai Neumann

CO2 emissions heating with fossiles buying stuff with a backpack of CO2 insulation alternative technology electricity from fossiles less mobility use of public transportation electric vehicles choosing green energy consuming less energy turning devices off investing into power saving devices buying less (e.g. meat or clothes) repairing things etc. available money being proud for being a better person measuring our footprint others do not appreciate green action enjoying comfort and new things mobility based on fossiles
A qualitative model asking for our personal motivation to lower our impact on climate change. Feel free to add to it.

Erfolg im Studium by ulrich.sailer@hfwu.de

realistische Studienanforderungen überzeugendes Studienangebot Konsumlust Sammlung berufspraktischer Erfahrungen Gute Berufsaussichten knappe Finanzen Gute Lernbedingungen Spaß/ Wohlfühlen Fachliches Vorwissen Methodenwissen Erfolgsdruck Persönliche Ausgeglichenheit Hobbies Familiäre Verpflichtungen Studienmotivation Nebenjobs Engagement Studierfähigkeit Erfolg im Studium Zeit für das Studium Beratungs-/ Coachingangebote für Studierende
Das kleine, qualitative Modell soll aufzeigen, wie ein erfolgreiches Studium gelingen kann. Einfluss haben hierauf die Hochschule (grüne Faktoren), die Studierenden (orange Faktoren) und teils gibt es auch externe Gründe (blaue Faktoren). Die Erkenntnismatrix führt, trotz der Einfachheit des Modells, zu interessanten Erkenntnissen, die klassische Diskussionen in Hochschulgremien bereichern können. Zu beachten ist dabei der Unterschied zwischen kurzfristigen Optimierungen und einer langfristigen Erfolgsst...

Quantitative model on smallholder's income (Workshop example using Monte Carlo) by Kai Neumann

unit price of cassava for smallholders cultivated land added yield from use of fertilizer yield without mineral fertilizer use of artificial fertilizer extreme weather Quantity sold by smallholders price of cassava on the market Money for the smallholders amount of cassava consumed per household own consumption severity of extreme weather production occurrence of extreme weather Costs of farming costs of mineral fertilizer costs per ha (without fertilizer) Total money available Spending for food Other expenses targeted amount for own consumption
This quantitative model is from a workshop for the University of Cape Coast. It features a small quantitative model that starts with a steady constant development of a smallholder's income from growing one crop. Via step by step simulation it can be changed. The model, then, was enriched by a Monte-Carlo simulation of the possible influence from extreme weather and by the use of the range() function to look for all possible combinations to identify an optimal solution. Note: some of the factors have an e...

Apple vs. FBI by bjuhre

Protection for terrorists Amount and intimacy of stored data on iPhones Attacks on other iPhones Modifying code is simple Legal precedent Spying into citizens's secrets Holy grail for hackers Gift for authoritarian governments Code finds ways to get free Tailored code for cracking open a special iPhone Privacy of intimate data Bad guys use encription from non-US companies Encription on iPhones Wish for more cracked iPhones invasion of privacy more easily accessible central servers Protection for good guys Search warrants of mobile devices Exposure to eavesdropping Risk for people's lives Amount and intimacy of stored data in clouds
This model is based on an article 'Inside Apple's Code War - The most powerful tech company is fighting the FBI on terrorism. Why?' (TIME Magazine March 28, 2016) Arguments of FBI are in purple Arguments of Apple are in orange Arguments from the articel in general are blue

Urban gardening revisited (wonna win FAIRPHONE) by Adam

biodiversity, robust species climate change conscious use of food, reconnect to nature digitalization and automation extreme weather flow of refugees Food security fossile economy, mineral fertilizer greener cities labor intensive urban gardening work people with no occupation practice of urban gardening teaching food and gardening vertical gardening wars and terror well being in the world well being in urban areas yield from smallholders yields yields from (industrial/conventional) farms yields from urban gardening
I have discovered the following article that inspired me to draw a bigger picture on urban gardening - at least qualitatively. http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urban-expeditions/austin/caleb-harper-innovation-in-urban-agriculture-important-because-of-climate-change/ Of course, I wonna win the FAIRPHONE (https://www.know-why.net/question/CfsXb3NvriEsmSuhnnuxsSQ)