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Qualitative model on COVID-19 (Corona virus) strategies by Kai Neumann

Deaths Medical care capacities High spread of virus Strict social distancing Additional care units Availability of cure / vaccine Delayed spread of virus Occasional return of virus Three weeks of total distancing Reaching economical limits Social chaos abandoning isolation Immunity of large parts of population Concerted global money printing Intensive monitoring of isolated weak Focussing on isolating just the weak Risk of concentrated severe cases Possibility of young struggling as well Possibility that immunity doesn't last National help to companies, even nationalization Ramp up of economy after crisis Monetary aid to the people People keeping their jobs Learning about the virus People spending money Test capacities National budget Targeting sources, not sinks International aid Global economy

Target Collecting and exploring different arguments and ideas around the so called Corona crisis in a qualitative cause and effect model that after weighting the interconnections allows for analyses through Insight Matrices and loop analysis. Time horizon Short term: 1 month Medium term: 3 months Long term: beyond 1 year More....For more please look at the presenter, explore the model via iMODELER as a freeware or have a look at the corresponding paper: https://www.consideo.com/papers-33.html (available ...

df 195 Hattie Feedback by Dirk Fabricius

Summative Tests Bedrohung Selbstwertgefühl Fehlerfreundlichkeit Personalisierung Isolierung d. Individuen Wettbewerb Lhp Perspektivenübernahme Ln LhP Feedb Ln Ln Feedb Lhp LN Nachfrage Feedb Peers Fb Ln LhP Fdb korrekte Antworten LhP Nachfrage Feedb LhP Variationen bisher gegang Pfade Sichtbares Lernen Aufgabenkomplexität Ziele spezifisch u. anspruchsvoll Lernen Lernerfolg Ln Perspektivenübernahme LhP Ln zu LhP Ln Veränderung LhP Veränderung Respekt Fürsorglichkeit LhP zu Ln LhP adäquate Erwartungen LhP Leidenschaft LhP Resistenz gg externe Info (Halo)

Dieses Modell stellt den für Hattie (2013) zentralen Feedback Prozess vor, ein wechselseitiger interaktiver, reziproker Vorgang, in dessen Verlauf allmählich die Lehrpersonen zu Lernenden und die Lernenden zu ihren eigenen Lehrpersonen werden. Gleichzeitig löst sich die Entgegensetzung von Unterricht und Feedback (Tests, Prüfungen) auf. Die Variablen sind den Seiten 5,15 f., 28-31,45, 145,205-218,267 f., 280–282,291 entnommen. Im Laufe der Zeit entwickelt sich die Selbstregulation und Selbsteinschätzung ...

Produktentwicklung: Requirements / Risikoanalyse (FMEA / DRBFM) by Franc Grimm

Dickeres Leder Quetschbirne Herr Meyer Frau Schulze Frust ablesen Korrosion im Akkufach Kraftmeter Innenkörper Kontrolle Spaltmaße Materialermüdung Versagen der Anzeige wertigere Materialien Reißen von Nähten Gummi Wasserschaden Ausleiern Versagen der Aufladung Oberfläche Leuchtdiode Feder Reißen des Leders Quetschen Qualität Garn Unternehmensweites Risikomanagement zu große Spaltmaße zu dünnes Material Austauschbarkeit (modular) Korrisionsschutz Nachfrage

Rückruf-Aktionen bzw. Qualitätsprobleme bei Unternehmen trotz ausgereifter Qualitätsmanagement (QM)-Methoden und Werkzeuge – wie ist das möglich? Natürlich spielt „menschliches Versagen“ eine Rolle, jedoch nicht die entscheidende! Der Hauptgrund ist recht trivial: es mangelt an Lust & Motivation, die QM-Methoden und Werkzeuge auch wirklich sinnvoll und systematisch zu nutzen! Risikoanalysen werden häufig nur als Pflichtaufgabe (als notwendiges Übel) und selten als Kür angesehen! FMEA (Fehlermöglichkeits-...

Schockbilder auf Zigarettenschachteln by bjuhre

Abschreckung durch Schockbilder Abschreckung durch Negativbeispiele in den Medien Schockbilder auf Schachteln Coole Typen in der Clique tun es Einnahmen aus Tabaksteuer Stärke der Sucht Schäden durch Rauchen Höhe der Tabaksteuer Preis für Zigaretten Anzahl Raucher Erkrankte Personen Es sich leisten können Politischer Wille zur Prävention Angst vor Arbeitsplatzverlust in der Industrie Wunsch nach Genuß Wunsch nach Pausen Interesse an Gesundheit Wunsch nach Entspannung Wunsch nach Zugehörigkeit Reiz des Verbotenen für Jugendliche Positive Effekte des Rauches Coolness-Faktor des Rauchens Druck auf Politik Einsicht in Gesundheitsschädlichkeit Anzahl Langzeit-Raucher Verkauf dekorativer Hüllen Anzahl jugendliche Raucher Gesundheitliche Aufklärung Positive besetzte öffentliche Raucher

Dieses Modell aus dem Modeler Forum Berlin-Brandenburg befasst sich mit der Frage der Wirkung von Schockbildern auf Zigaretten-Schachteln, wie sie in einigen Ländern üblich sind und von der EU auch in Deutschland geplant waren.

Profit through cooperation with competitors by Kai Neumann

Both specialize Demand, Attractiveness Corporate Foresight Strategy and focus on core competencies Unpredictable development of demand and technology Size of market Trust Unknown third competitor Lower prices for supplies Individualized / Knowledge creating corporation with higher d... Clash of cultures Budget Motivation Convincing arguments Competitor's profit Costs Cooperation Competitor gets project Communication skills Competitor offers unique features Competitor lowers price Price Modeling of effects Projects/Products Profit Expand to new markets (...) Development of features Income Features offered

This model explores the challenges and the potential benefits of cooperation between competitors. Its connections need to be weighted. Most measures now are more costs than benefit ...

Gefühlte Überlast by Ulli Lorenz

Vertretungen verfügbare Zeit f. einzelne Aufgabe unliebsame Aufgaben Umfangreiche Abstimmungsprozesse Projekte Qualität der Erledigung Zuarbeiten für Vorgesetzte Dringlichkeit pers. Organisationsfähigkeit Organisatorisches Motivation Listen in der Abteilung Kurze Fristen große Arbeitsgruppen gefühlte Überlast freie Kapazität Fortbildung Ernst nehmen der Vorgänge Erfolge nach "außen" direkter Zugriff durch höhere Vorgesetzte Anzahl der offenen Vorgänge Anzahl der Aufgaben "Liegen lassen" kurzfristige Sonderzuarbeiten Überlast der Vorgsetzten Würdigung durch Vorgesetzte wiss. Recherche Verwaltungsvorgänge

Asset Allocation Planner (Portfolio Strategy Manager) by Kai Neumann

Total yield from bonds Dividend from stocks Total yield from credits Total dividend from stocks Combined Yield Current Stock Value Yield from Product 1 (e.g. a credit) Yield from Product 2 (e.g. stocks) Total loss Yield from Product 3 (e.g. a bond) Profitability of portfolio Available amount of money Current interest rate for credits Likelihood of a total loss of money for credits Volatility of credit interest rate Amount invested into credits Total yield accumulated Amount invested into stocks Guaranteed interest rate for bond Proportion for credits Amount invested into bonds Proportion for bonds Proportion for stocks Volatility of dividend from stocks Expected dividend from stocks Volatility of stock prices Total yield from stocks Expected development of stock price

This is just a small model I have developed to prepare for a customer project. It is just on a yearly basis running for 10 years. There are two ways to model asset strategies. One is to simulate risks by Monte Carlo simulations as I did here. Very easy! Another is to use financial math to approximate the risks - which is not that easy and therefore I didn't do it here. However, not using Monte Carlo simulation would allow us to use the range function in order to identify an optimal portfolio. So, if ther...

PiM: Building a new garden house (Qualitative Analysis) by Kai Neumann

costs walls Milestone factor (Buying plants) Buying plants Wood Person 2 Time it takes setting up the walls Person 1 End of working time Plantings Lawn and plants around the house Finished roof Initially planned budget Finished doors and windows Milestone factor (Preparing floor and grounding) Total costs Preparing floor and grounding Start of working time Milestone factor (Setting up the walls) Perfect Garden House Working hours Person 2 gets ill The Finished House Windows and Doors have the correct measures Rain and/or Storm Watching Training Videos Setting up the walls Building the roof Inserting door and windows

The aim of this little model is to explore the project modeling possibilities of the PROCESS-iMODELER (it is called PROCESS-iMODELER though it is just a feature of the quantitative iMODELER). The project at hand is the building of a small garden house. The model probably isn't complete in its details as it should just show the functionality.

National health care system by Kai Neumann

Increase of insurance bills Research Crystal palaces and overhead Treatment of illnesses Budget of insurance companies Availability of improved treatments Financial coverage of treatments Preemptive measures Environmental hazards peaceful and productive society Negative stress Healthy diet Sports Healthy lifestyle Illnesses Renewable energy Universal basic income Healthy people opt out Mandatory health insurance People get older Costs of treatments Economies of scale Guaranteed health care Higher payments at younger age Private insurance companies Some insurance companies get less healthy clients Low interest rates Speculation on financial markets

just a quick collection of the major arguments maybe one should explicitly distinguish between private and national insurances and between the stakes of healthier and those less healthy persons though the major implications are already included. please post your comments

Integration of refugees by Kai Neumann

refugees live a decent life locals are happy costs refugees get shelter refugees get food refugees get medical help refugees find a home refugees find a job refugees get a housing locally refugees move to another place/country refugees return home Target refugee camps funding lowering the standards for intermediate accommodation of refu... supply of tents, containers etc. decentralized private accommodation unused buildings and facilities staff to manage those camps high standards European agreement on disposition of refugees refugees adapt to the local culture refugees are supported by locals refugees are taught English legal aspects get cleared donations reuse of military facilities refugees build camps

I have just started this collaborative model on the best way to integrate refugees Please join the modeling