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Quick view of the model (open complete model with iMODELER):

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Susanne

Susanne

Nice model. I think a surplus would lead to more exports and lower prices with a delay to less production, like shown here:
http://www.know-why.net/ro?key=CLxsAgYv7_-hsU_pDXRoqUA
Maybe you add this to your model?
Maybe there are even more factors we have to consider?

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