Systemic view on terror threats after Paris

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Just the start of a small model on the basic interconnections behind the growing threat of terror. You may use the collaborative link to edit the model or provide a complete new model.

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Comments (12)

Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

here some additional information on the aspect of climate change and the war in Syria: http://sustainablefoodtrust.org/articles/climate-change-agriculture-syria-conflict/?utm_source=SFT+N...
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Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Someone has added female forces - very interesting!
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Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Here some 'data' I have also added to the description of the climate change factor in the model: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-11-23/drought-influenced-syrian-civil-war-so-what-says-u-s-co...
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miroslav.havranek@czp.cuni.cz

miroslav.havranek@czp.cuni.cz

Hi Kai,
I think you are missing important link in the attacks. I added two factors in the model. Daesh strategy is not only to get media attention but also to induce fear (or terror one might say). And as we know fear leads to anger and anger leads to hatred which leads to the dark side of force. And one can already see it happening.
As the security, public oppinion and media turns on muslims, they will face open or hidden discrimination or prosecution and some of them will become extremists.
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Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann replies Daoen Pan

'nice' video, thanks Daoen. The video, I think, lists also attacks of 'islamists' (I'd prefer to call them terrorists) against islamic targets. Some of the funding has been aimed at ethnic competitors. The most prominent enemy, though, are the countries that intervene there. The misuse of religion is just a vehicle to give desperate young men a feeling of integration in order to command them for various purposes. Generally, the purposes could vary as the vehicle that makes them all believe in what they do. That is basic psychology: the more desperate we are the more we need to believe in something! Therefore the model argues that next to some airstrikes to wipe off their heavy arms and the control of money flows we need to offer perspectives to target the cause and not the symptom. Our believe that we can control borders or provide security appears to be - as the model shows - naive. I still think that the purposes could be anything and that radical Islam might serve well as a vehicle but is not a reason. There are terror groups in Africa who do not need a religious vehicle to recruit young men and spread their power.
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Daoen Pan

Daoen Pan

Islamist terrorist attacks 1980's to November 2015 Time-lapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQJshxuF9zA
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Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Hmm, I think that at least ISIS was founded not as a terror group fighting the western civilization but rather as one islamic ethnic group fighting another (Sunnies against Shiites etc.). Only now does the radicalization lead to explicit terror against us - may it because of getting ransoms or for the recruitment of more followers. Al Qaeda was funded for its fight against Russian invasion of Afghanistan, some say even by the US.
With regard to the moral standards we do indeed agree that religion is only part of the framework. I mentioned religious leaders explicitly because I think that the religious leaders from those countries of origin should publicly condemn the misinterpretation of Islam.
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Dirk Fabricius

Well, I think I was not precise enough in my comment. It aims at two factors, "ethnic groups finance terror" and "moral standards (e.g. by religious leaders)." For the first, I think "religious" instead of "ethnic" fits better. For the second I think, the moral standards should be universal, not religious (we agree insofar, I suppose) and so I have no hope at all, that religious leaders (of what religion ever) will enhance these moral standards. Kants "Sittlichkeit" come up, after the religious authorities had lost much of their power. Integration, which offers the experience, to ask, to question religious authorities and the Koran without sanctions of any kind, to be free to think is likely to enhance moral standards better in the long run.
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Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Dirk, I am not sure whether we disagree or my connections haven't been precise enough. However, I have added a few aspects, better descriptions, and a first weighting of the connections. Also I have updated the presenter items.
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Dirk Fabricius

Well, in many aspects a convincing model. But there are two points I would suggest to change. First, for the time being it is not ethnic, but religious groups who's members feel entitled and often obliged to kill nonbelievers, second, moral standards are lowered by religion, not enhanced (see http://gu.com/p/4e243/sbl). So, religion is not the solution, but the problem. Many muslims believe, that to live according to the Koran, the state and its order must be islamic. That of course means, to live in a democratic state according human rights and the rule of law puts them in a kind of moral dilemma. It was the problem for christianity too, when enlightenment started to undermine religion and its institutions –and for some and in some aspects it is still.
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